MBS meeting with Hamas

I keep telling you, don't underestimate Mohammed bin Salman. This man is not playing. So it was just announced that MBS is set to meet with leaders of Hamas in Jeddah to talk about reestablishing ties. Who saw that coming? Okay.

So let's look at how this could plausibly play out. What is the play being made here by MBS? MBS meets with Hamas. Right? He's positioning Saudia as a mediator in the Palestine Israel conflict.

In meeting with Hamas, he's offering them a chance at being normalized. The price of being normalized, of course, is to be more moderate, to moderate their position, to moderate their rhetoric, to moderate their goals, and to be on board with a more conciliatory process. And in exchange for that, also, Saudi Arabia can completely rebuild Gaza, invest in Gaza, invest in the West Bank, invest in the Palestinian territories. Hamas cannot say no to that. By MBS becoming involved, by investing Saudi money into the rebuilding of Gaza, and by moderating, Hamas's stance, all of those things immediately decrease the viability, not just the likelihood, but the viability of Israel bombing Gaza.

These moves also will temper the resentment felt by Islamists and Islamic militants and just other sort of Islamic minded people with these positive actions. It also decreases the feasibility, not just the likelihood, but the feasibility of there being any sort of radical Islamist group emerging in Saudi Arabia to oppose his regime. And, of course, because of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and China and Saudi Arabia and Russia, becoming a mediator in the conflict and reestablishing ties with Hamas could potentially also open up Gaza and the West Bank to Chinese and Russian investment. Now offering Hamas the chance to be normalized through their own moderation, this will also make less viable any of the other Islamic opposition groups in Gaza and the West Bank, and it will become Hamas' job to police them. And in response to all of these moves, I would expect that the Palestinian authority under Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazin, they will move even further, on the side of the capitulationist and collaborationist, side of the spectrum.

And, of course, MBS Saudi Arabia, becoming that involved and operating as a mediator, negotiator, moderator, or what have you, that increases their stake in Palestine, in Israel, in the region. And subsequently, that sort of will stifle Israel's dream of going to war with Iran because Saudi Arabia is normalizing with them too. What I think is happening is that Mohammed bin Salman is gradually, incrementally, slowly edging Israel towards the realization that they have to integrate with the region and recognize and accept that they are a Jewish minority in an Arab Muslim neighborhood. They're not an EU country. They have to get along with their neighbors, and this approach of hostility and aggression and confrontation and conflict all the time is only viable as long as America will continue to subsidize you.

And America will only continue to subsidize you if there is reliable conflict in the region. Well, the conflicts are all being resolved, and America is looking elsewhere. So, I mean, Mohammed bin Salman is coming to Israel and saying, look, you and America is over. You had fun for a while, but, you know, people change. It's okay.

I talked to everybody. Just tell everyone you're with me, Habibi. Everything will be fine. But we're gonna have to make some adjustments in your behavior, in your aspirations, and the way you deal with everybody. But we'll make it worth your while.

It's plausible that it could play out this way. Will it definitely play out this way? But it's plausible, and I really hope that it does.