Middle Nation Regions Briefing | Algeria-Morocco Stalemate

Assalamu alaikum, everybody. Welcome back to the regional briefings. I'm very excited that we're back. Today, we're joined by brother Abdul Rahman, who will walk us through one of North Africa's most complex and unreported rivalries. We're talking about rivalry rivalry between Morocco and Algeria and the high stakes race over Western Sahara.

Now brother Abdul Rahman, welcome so much and for taking on, this topic. So to set the scene for us, why has the Western Sahara remained such a flashpoint for decades, And how does it tie into the wider geopolitical power struggle playing out in North Africa today?

Sister. That's a great question. So the West Sahara West Sahara has been a battleground for decades, and the reason is, well, resources, first of all. The Was Sahara is very, very rich in phosphate. For example, there's the Bocara Mine, and that accounts for 14% of the world's phosphate production.

It's just one single mine. So it is it is very, important for global agriculture. And the fisheries in the West Sahar also generate billions of dollars every year. So that is the economic, importance of, the West Sahara. But there's also more than that because, the region, well, Morocco and Algeria, it's basically acts North Africa in general, not just more Congeria.

It acts as a gateway to the Sahel, which is very resource rich and very, very important for trade routes. Now before we break down the geopolitical landscape of this conflict, I wanted to break down what the inational OCGFC is for people who might be listening for the first time. So the international owners and controllers of global financialized capital. They operate beyond borders. They have no loyalty to any nation or any ideology.

They have only one target, one goal, and that is profit regardless of the human or environmental cost because since they're a corporate entity, again, they have no societal obligations. International CGFC consists of different groups or departments if you want to call them. You have the FIC, the financial industrial complex, the MIC and the military industrial complex, the TIC, techno industrial complex and the CIC which is the consumer industrial complex. Now let's start with the big boys. The top of the food chain you have the financial industrial complex.

These are the finance giants, they have trillions in valuations And due to regulations in the nineties, they've been able to create this risk managed profit generating machine where regardless of what happens, they always profit. They bet on all sides on all outcomes, and they win regardless of what happens. For example, if one of their departments fail, they just short their stocks and profit. So and they also act as the foreign policy department. For example, they are the ones who are cutting negotiating deals with The Gulf right now.

They consist of bankers, private equity firms, asset management firms, Vanguard, BlackRock, KKR, GP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, State Street, it goes on and on and on. It is also worth noting that the international OCGFC, because they operate their own borders, they are accountable to their shareholders only and no one else. We don't have any instruments to hold them accountable. With that being said, the financial industrial complex are the shareholders of the other departments, so they basically control them in one way or another. Their interests will always come first, they can shoot the department in the leg if it means they'll make more money.

Next you have the most famous one, military industrial complex. That's their security wing. Obviously they profit through war, war is their optimal profit model. You have weapons manufacturers and aerospace manufacturers like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics. Then you have the techno industrial complex there, their r and d department, which has all the tech giants from Apple to Nvidia to OpenAI to Amazon.

And then you have your consumer industrial complex, which is the retail department, and this is probably the most diverse of all the departments. Can have everything from Coca Cola to Shell to BP to Total to Pfizer to Exxon, Starbucks, Walmart, you name it. Obviously their interests there is because of it's a profit driven strategy, not an ideological driven strategy. Sometimes the departments will compete one with one another. And like we said, the financial industrial complex bets on all sides of it.

Now let's get to Morocco and Algeria.

I'm sorry. Before before we move on, I just want us to just clarify a little bit regarding the OCGFC and and what you explained to us. It's not a conspiracy theory. It's a clause.

It's it's not a cabal. It's not the Illuminati. It's not the Jews. It's just a group of mega corporations.

Absolutely. Yeah.

Looking out has yeah. Yes. They're looking out for their own interests, their own shareholders. Basically, capitalism has created this monster and it left it unchecked for so long that it has transcended borders and they're basically out of control now. They've created this current system.

If you live in the West, these are the people that control your government. So if you're wondering why your government hates you, it's because, well, they're not making decisions. Yes. It's a it's not a fixed group. It's not a members only group.

It's a very huge, large group of multinational corporations. Now in Chile and Morocco, you have proxies and then you have regional players that are backing these proxies, and then you have major players that are backing these regional players. It's it's quite complex. It's very layered. There's obviously a lot of history, and there's a lot of nationalism.

There's a lot of it's a very, very sensitive topic, especially in the West Sahara. So to better understand this, I wanna break this down into three dynamics, resource allocation, proxies, and external influence. For resource allocation, we've already discussed. There's the competition for the resources of the Wasahara. There's also Algerian Ghaz, and there's also access to the Sahel.

These are the primary focus of all the players. And you have proxies. You have the movement for the self determination of Kavli, and you have the Sahara Arab Democratic Republic or the Polisario front, whichever you prefer. Polisario is backed by Algeria, and Algeria claims that Morocco is back that Algerian chief of staff claims that Morocco allegedly funds and backs the movement for self determination of Kabuli. For external influence, we have two teams, obviously, Algeria and Morocco.

On Morocco's team, you have France, the GCC, a national OCGFC, and Egypt. On the Algerian block, you have Russia, Turkey, China, and Qatar. Turkey and the GCC are fighting it out for control. They wanna secure ports. They wanna secure economic zones, and they also wanna secure access to the Sahel.

The international also GIPC are obviously interested in the same things, but they're also funding both sides and both proxies, so stability is not within the optimal profit model right now. Algeria backs up Pulisario because of its anti colonial stance. Algeria is it's very ideal the regime in Algeria is very ideological in a sense where they are take a very, very anticolonial approach to everything from from foreign capital injections, foreign investments, specifically from the West. And Polisario for them is just a way to embrace that anticolonial approach and also provoke Morocco. It's a win win for them.

Morocco, on the other hand, is not ideological. They're They're basically doing what The UAE did and it's basically okay we'll open our country for investors, we'll be your headquarters in the region, just come in, invest billions and billions and billions to whatever you want. So economically Morocco is doing extremely well and Algeria can't match that. Because it's anti colonial stance has left it somewhat isolated. Now China does provide loans and it does provide infrastructure deals but when you compare that to the billions of dollars from The Gulf and from the international OCGFC that Morocco gets, it's it's not even close.

Algeria also relies on its gas leverage to the European Union after sanctions against Russia. Europe had to look elsewhere for its energy market. Algeria did step up for that role. However, the EU has been trying to move away from Algeria because Algeria has weaponized its gas leverage quite a few times. Example, when Spain backed Morocco and the Sahara dispute, Algeria cut off their gas.

And, obviously, Spain said, you know what? Actually, if we take it back, we don't want anything to do with this. They've also for example, they threatened to unleash immigrants on the European Union if they don't pay the price that Algeria demands. So, we are seeing the European Union try to move away from Algeria, by increasing its, increasing The United States and Qatar's market share. For example, they just, recently signed a fifteen year, deal with Qatar for liquefied, natural gas.

So Algeria will have to be very careful, about how it wants to use its gas leverage because it seems like this is that's only lifeline as it stands. Morocco, on the other hand, is playing with economic warfare. They see no reason to normalize with Algeria. In fact, it the current situation as it stands is where all parties don't have any incentives to stop. This this rift, this tension benefits everyone.

For Algeria, it helps rally nationalism. It helps crack down on opposition, and it helps maintain its ideological anticolonial stance. Morocco, on the other hand, as we said, engages in economic warfare, and it has no problem dragging us out for as long as it takes. On the other hand, does does not things are not looking good for them because what they're doing right now is playing for a stalemate, trying to prolong this as much as possible. And, hopefully, that the situation becomes a bit dangerous where the rift or the conflict could harm the consumer industrial complex supply chains or supply lines or where they want to normalize because peace is just more profitable now.

But this Algeria is trying to buy time, but the issue isn't time. The issue is their economic stagnation. Their economy is not doing too well, and Algeria's backers are not interested in the regime, they're interested in the resources. So if the regime loses any legitimacy or if the people are not satisfied, they don't really care. Morocco's backers, on the other hand, need stability to protect their investments, so they do have a vested interest in the Moroccan regime and the stability of Morocco.

Whereas Algeria's backers, for example, are using it just as it's their own counterweight to Western dominance in the region. Now let's look at the incentives of each player one by one. Egypt is the simplest position of them because it's not interested in profit or control or anything, they just want to keep Erdogan's military ambition in check. So, basically, you can have all the projects you want, all the money you want, just no military bases. And, also, they want support on the Nile Dam issue across the board.

This seems like very, very easy concession for all parties to make. Russia and China, on the other hand, as we said, they are using Algeria as a counterweight to Western influence in the region. And through BLIC's alignment, they are providing arms and infrastructure deals to Algeria. The GCC wanna secure ports. They wanna secure energy and infrastructure projects, and they also wanna limit Qatar's influence because Qatar, as we said, is backing Algeria.

In national, also GFC is just profiting from on all levels. Financial industrial complex, the military industrial complex, and the consumer industrial complex. It is worth noting that this rift has an escalation ceiling as to not disrupt supply chains. Morocco, we said, is using economic warfare and economic leverage, and the West Sahara is is something they cannot give up or concede on. And they have no reason to concede or normalize as of now.

Turkey is backing Algeria through drone sale. It's trying to be neutral but it's not. Or Dugan is known for playing playing both sides but he is leaning heavily towards Algeria through bricks alignment and drone sales. The EU is trying to step away from Algeria's gas leverage. France is investing heavily in Morocco's infrastructure and its economy.

The only side that actually has an incentive to normalize as it stands right now is the GCC. Because as we know with Middle Nation that there is a regional plan and conflicts will have to be put down. Anyone who doesn't go along with the plan will be replaced as we saw with Bashar. Very very easy. So let's look at what concessions could possibly be made for all sides to come to an agreement.

China and Russia as we said are not interested in the regime, so they can force a regime change if normalization is on the table, then regime changes occur they can play. However, it's also worth noting that there is no realistic opposition in Algeria. But, again, as we saw in Syria, that doesn't matter. They'll just put anyone. Turkey and Egypt, on the other hand, I think Egypt will let Turkey have economic zones, so long as it doesn't overstep militarily.

Egypt will want debt relief, and Turkey will want sanction relief. Egypt's debt relief will most likely come through the GCC as we have seen in recent years. And as we said, they want sell Egypt on support for the Nile Dime issue. It is worth noting that Egypt is not committed because it thinks it can win, but because it will get what it wants in the end. Because as we said, it's just very, very simple request.

Algeria and Morocco, on the other hand, they could use this as an opportunity to allocate funds to peace dividends. I'm sure nobody likes corruption, but this is how these things go. Algeria is, however, as we said, is looking to go for a stay. Mean, they're basically holding on tight and hoping tomorrow comes. It's a gamble, but it's currently the best strategy because the way things stand, normalization means death for Algeria.

The regime will lose the state itself will lose all kinds of legitimacy. Morocco will merge as it stands, will merge as the economic hedge fund and economic superpower in the region. And like we said, it has airtight support air economically that Algeria just can't match. It's basically about who wants to top out first, and it's not looking good for Algeria. For the international CGFC, we said their strategy is profit driven.

So when they are convinced that the profits from the CIC are gonna outweigh the profits from MIC, then we're gonna stop this. This is obviously the the card that the golf is gonna have to play by pitching them this these projects infrastructure. If anyone can strike a deal with them, it's The Gulf. Something like combining Algerian gas with Moroccan mines, Moroccan renewable energy projects, etcetera, etcetera. All these things can be incentives for the international CGFC to put their military industrial complex on leash.

GCs, as we said, want stability, and they also wanna limit Qatar's influence in the region. Now who stands to lose from this? Well, the military industrial complex, obviously, eventually, they know they will have to pull out. And as it sounds, EU consumers are paying are witnessing energy cost spikes because of Algeria has been doing recently.

Brother, how do ordinary Algerians and Moroccans view this rivalry? Is it public support? Is it driven by, you know, the people that are in power, militaries? What do people, everyday layperson, feel about this?

I can't speak for everyone, obviously, but it's become very clear. It's become a nationalism issue. It's it's it's patriotism. It's national pride. It's it's more than just politics.

And both sides benefit from this again because it it rallies nationalism behind the regimes, another incentive not to stop. So yeah, this is why I said it's a very sensitive topic and I don't want to see anyone fighting in the comments. It's a very big deal for them and because of this we're seeing a rise in nationalism which I as Muslims I don't think we should be advocating for what we should be aspiring for is to be ruled under a single Islamic political entity and that's what The Gulf is trying to do establishing a soft empire.

So what's the worst case scenario for North Africa if this spills over into the Sahel or deeper into Bricks and GCC tensions?

I don't see catastrophe coming out of this because, as we said, the GCC and the international OCDFC are on the same page. They have a plan, and they're gonna go through with it. So I don't see an all out war breaking out. For example, it would jeopardize the infrastructure, the billions and billions of dollars invested in energy projects, invested in the West Sahara and so on. Worst case scenario is looking like worst case scenario for Algeria where they will be basically squeezed dry by all parties, including their backers.

You described in the Sorry.

Yeah. Because as as I said, the way things have been going, Algeria is trying to buy more time for itself, but again, the main issue is its economy is stagnating and you're not addressing that. And your gas leverage is being taken away little by little. Mean, the European Union has increased its spending to $70,000,000,000 per year for to diversify their energy markets. Best case scenario is that it ends in a stalemate, and all parties go to the negotiating table to settle the disputes.

You mentioned you describe entities like the iNational OCGFC as funding both sides. Is this intentional destabilization or risk management? How would you describe this? What is the purpose of it?

Well, it's just a good business deal. They know good business deal on AC one. This this is not something new to them. There are many countless examples of funding both sides. Absolutely.

The way they see it, there are tensions and we can sell weapons to this guy and that guy, but there's also you need there's a red line you cannot cross because we have a lot of resources and supply chains we don't want to interrupt. I mean the longest conveyor belt in the world is connected to a Boccarat mine. It's I think it was 61 miles, and so you can imagine what would happen if a drone strikes that or if a tank shell hits it or something like disastrous, you're talking billions and billions of dollars just disappeared. So yeah, but they have no interest in any state or any nation or any ideology as we said, so this is just a profit opportunity. They will they yes they are back in Morocco.

But they also see a business opportunity to sell arms to the other side. So why not? And they know things are not going to be blown out of proportions. It's just the the from a core perspective, this is the best case scenario for them as it stands right now.

And and we also understand that the OCGFC works for like we mentioned, it's not a group of people. It's not some conspiracy theory. It's not some group of people somewhere in the mountains, you know, in a robe worshiping something. It's just, you know, people that have Sacrifices. Excuse me?

Yeah. Like, you said living in the mountains, so I said human sacrifices. You know? They're doing Oh, yes. That kind of stuff.

Yeah. No. It's not that type of scenario. It's it's basically just organizations, you know, financial institutions looking to obviously profit, and it's all about capitalism. It's it's capitalism on steroids, basically, and making money from wealth that is not even physical because most of the wealth really comes from stock markets and that type of thing.

So it it's it's more in you know, for the purpose of making money in any case. And within the OCGFC, these different organizations, you will find that some of the interests don't coincide with the with whoever it is that that is part of the OCGFC or that can be described to be part of the OCGFC. So that is why we have scenarios where it looks like the OCGFC is funding both sides. But in the meantime, each one is just there for their own interest. They're not necessarily working together.

You know, they don't have some logo and some CEO that they answer to. You know, they answer to their their own pocket. So we do get that that they they they don't really care about whether the country is destabilized or not as long as they make their money.

Yes. It's it's like you said, it's not some cult or conspiracy theory. It's just men in suits. It's shareholders. It's dividends.

It's quarterly earnings. And I I'm glad you mentioned that actually because the way the international OCGFC approach geopolitics is drastically different from how everyone else approaches because they are a stateless entity, they have no societal obligations and so their entire strategy is short term, all their strategies are short term strategies whereas when you're a state all your strategies are long term because survival is the single most important thing. The state interests come before anything else, so survival is always the goal. But when you're a corporate entity, the only thing you care about is maximizing profits before the quarter ends or just pleasing your shareholders in general. And obviously, they've been able to do this for so, so long because they invested the current global financial system.

And this has created backlash and it pretty much created BRICS. As we know, BRICS is the response to international OCGFC dominance and this global financial system. It is basically geopolitics fixing itself.

Absolutely. No. Absolutely. That's that's you hit the nail on the head with that. So I think we've come to an end for today, and I wanna thank you so much for taking the time out to research this information and bringing it to us and choosing to share that information with us.

These are important things and important topics that we need to be speaking about Western Sahara. So and then people, you know, they don't even realize that Morocco and Algeria and all these are, you know, playing their parts within the region that they're in. So it's important that we understand how each one operates and cooperate with each other and how it affects the rest of the world because it all it it all comes down to the same thing. What the what what one country does in the one side, it does affect you know, it has a ripple effect for the rest of the globe. So it's important that we understand these things.

And so thank you so much for you for bringing this information to us, and thank you to the people for listening. So

Thank you for giving us this opportunity and the platform to do this.