Sudan Update: May 31, 2023

Okay. It's been a few days now since I did any update about the situation in Sudan. Frankly, there hasn't been much to update. The fighting has been ongoing. They've been having cease fires with fighting going on even within the cease fires.

They were asking for reservists to reenlist or to become active, which isn't a good sign in terms of the strength of the Sudanese army's position right now. There was also an extension of the ceasefire for another five days that was supposed to expire. But even still, again, as I said, with the ceasefires, there are continuous ongoing breaches of the ceasefires with skirmishes happening continuously. Now the latest news that I got today is that the government, the Sudanese army, is withdrawing from the negotiations, the peace talks in Jeddah being hosted by Saudi Arabia and officially also The US. I don't know any information about what's being discussed in those talks.

I don't have any inside information about the negotiations. But the fact that Burhan is withdrawing from those talks indicates to me that he's being told by the Saudis, which also will be the Emiratis, He's getting the message from them that they're not going to support him and that he needs to reach a compromise with the RSF, and that compromise will probably look something like a transition to civilian government, meaning you step down and Mehdi of the RSF will assume power through a farcical democratic process. There's no other reason for him to actually withdraw except that he's getting a sign from the Saudis that they're not on his side. And that, as I said earlier, the fact that there were even peace talks by Saudi Arabia was an indication already that they were not going to support the regime in in Sudan, that they were not gonna support Burhanda, were not gonna support the Sudanese army and the official government. Because otherwise, you wouldn't have these talks.

You would just say the RSF are rebels, they are mutineers, and they need to be exterminated. That would be normal position, particularly of the Arab regimes that do not sympathize with rebels in any way. But in this particular case, they said, well, sit down and talk with them. Let's talk. That means you're on the side of the rebels, which already we know that The UAE has a very close relationship with, the RSF, and Saudi Arabia through The UAE has a close relationship with the RSF.

So the indication to me is again what I've been saying from the beginning that the Emiratis and the Saudis want to see the Burhan regime removed, and they want to see their people, their clients, meaning the RSF, take power in Sudan. Sudanese army removing themselves from the negotiations indicates that they have gotten that message as well, that that is the intention of the Saudis and the Emiratis and the regional major players in the conflict. So it looks like the Saudis and the Emiratis have again dug their heels in in support of the RSF and their agenda for Sudan, for the government to be removed and for there to be a so called civilian government which will be comprised mostly of RSF people wearing suits instead of military uniforms. And Allahu Alam. But that's what it looks like to me.