Understanding Divorce Statistics

Assalamu alaikum. Let's talk about statistics for a second. Because a brother commented on one of my videos yesterday with a number of apparently alarming statistics from the Muslim world that show a disturbingly high divorce rate. In Kuwait, for example, the divorce rate was actually higher than the marriage rate last year. So that means we're in a serious crisis.

Right? Wrong. The statistics he was using was the divorce to marriage ratio which sounds like a reasonable ratio to be looking at but it isn't. When you hear divorces per marriage, you assume that means the total number of marriages that are ending in divorce but that's not what it means. It means the total number of registered divorces during a given year versus the total number of new marriages registered in that same year.

These numbers have almost nothing to do with each other. So in Kuwait, for example, there were more registered divorces last year than there were new marriages. And this is largely down to COVID nineteen restrictions in Kuwait that prevented people from getting married because of lockdowns and financial restrictions, and the divorces are attributed largely to the tensions caused by lockdowns and COVID nineteen restrictions. The divorce to marriage ratio does not show that more marriages overall are ending in divorce. If someone wants to create alarm about divorce, they'll use this statistic.

The fact is that what's called the refined divorce rate which measures the total number of divorces versus the total number of currently married people, has declined in a number of Muslim countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, and The UAE. But by using the divorce to marriage ratio, you can portray the opposite. This is a kind of trickery and it assumes that you will not delve deeper to scrutinize the data. They'll also tell you that such and such percentage of marriages will end in divorce within the first five years but this is drawn from the fact that most divorces occur within the first five years. It doesn't actually tell you that most marriages end in divorce in the first five years.

You understand what I mean? It's not talking about most marriages, it's talking about the percentage of divorces that occur in that time frame. Most divorces occur within the first five years but most marriages do not end in divorce. Another seemingly alarming statistic is the very high number of single unmarried people in the Muslim world, particularly Arab world. But is it alarming?

Not really. Throughout the Muslim world, particularly in the Arab world, our population is disproportionately young with a median age between 20 and 30. These are not unmarried people as in chronic bachelors and spinsters. This would be more accurately classified as people soon to be married. Now as I've said, overall marriage rates in the Muslim world have declined slightly and divorce rates in the Muslim world overall have increased slightly.

And there are multiple reasons for that. Age demographic being one, socioeconomic turmoil being one, and, yes, perhaps, feminism too. But are we in a crisis? Not really. So when information comes to you, verify.