Niger, the West, and the path to independence

Assalamu alaikum. Let's talk about Niger and the broader Sahel region. There are reports that the Wagner Group has offered and has, in fact, already deployed some of their troops to the, capital in Niger ostensibly to stabilize the government to provide security for the new government. Now if you have watched my content, then you'll know that this is something that I anticipated in my earlier comments on the situation. Wagner has also allegedly already been involved in some skirmishes with what's being called Al Qaeda.

Now I say what's being called Al Qaeda because it is widely accepted in Niger and across the region that what is known as Al Qaeda in the Sahel is essentially the West version, particularly the French, of Wagner. The French are believed by most of the people in the region to be the organizing, the funding, the arming, and the training force behind Al Qaeda there. So if you wanna listen to what people in the region think, then that's their view. If you wanna listen to what the West says about it, then of course, they will say that Al Qaeda is an organically created group of radicals who apparently are dedicated for whatever reason to ensuring that western military presence in the Sahel remains fully justified. So basically, either way, you have to conclude that this group is serving western interests either knowingly or unknowingly.

Personally, I'm inclined to feel that the sentiments of the people in the region have the most credibility on this issue. Now the new government, the coup government in Niger has reportedly declared that they will cease, exportation of uranium to France, which is a country that has, roughly 70% of their energy, derived from nuclear power. So this decision by Niger, is tantamount to blowing up France's Nord Stream pipeline. Earlier, you'll know that I speculated that UAE and Saudi Arabia and Russia could have been involved in the coup in Niger. Now that may or may not be the case, but it's not unreasonable to suspect.

Whatever the case may be, when any country in Africa makes a move to sever its ties with the West or to remove the neocolonialist yoke from their necks, obviously, Russia and China will immediately step into the vacuum. And The UAE and Saudi Arabia have positioned themselves to act as brokers in the region for both the Chinese and the Russians, so their involvement is likely gonna be there on some level. But the thing is, The UAE and Saudi Arabia want to get a foothold in these countries through collaboration with Russia and China to help pry them away from the West, but with an eye on securing their own eventual dominion over those countries in the as they form their sort of soft empire. Obviously, this is a tremendously tricky business because both Russia and China, of course, want to secure these countries under their own dominion. So there's gonna be some tension there between the partners, the non aligned partners who are involved in that.

The UAE doesn't wanna get muscled out by Wagner, which has proven to be a ruthlessly effective force, and has gained considerable influence, for example, in Mali. The UAE doesn't wanna see the entire Sahel region consolidated under Wagner, and of course, The UAE and Saudi Arabia have their own experience, and have their own access to mobilizing jihadi groups, extremist groups, radical groups, and they have their own militias, they have their own private militias, and they have considerable influence over the Egyptian army. In fact, Wagner officials from Wagner met with Egyptian officials just last week, I think, and were warned by the Egyptians not to interfere with Egyptian interests in the Sehel region, which means Saudi Arabian and UAE interests in the Sehel region. So we can see that there already is some tension between the Emiratis, the Saudis, and the Russians. Also, there is the possibility of an ECOWAS intervention in Niger on behalf of the West.

In other words, we're talking about the West trying to deploy the militaries of their former colonies to put down a rebellion in one of their former colonies, which sort of makes you wonder whether you can even call them former colonies or not. But fortunately, there is significant opposition or resistance to this idea with several countries in ICOWAS outright refusing to approve an ICOWAS intervention, and there's even been considerable public opposition to such an intervention in the countries that have called for it, such as in Nigeria. Any African government that actually undertakes a military intervention in Niger, in my opinion, would be committing political suicide because it would just expose them as western puppets. So what is likely to happen in Niger? As long as Niger takes a hard stance against the export of, uranium to France or even if they take a hard stance on the terms of exportation, it seems inevitable that there's gonna be violence.

This violence is either gonna take the form of official military action or it will be in the form of paramilitaries seeking to sow chaos in Niger, meaning, battles between Wagner and Western backed terrorists and potentially, UAE and Saudi backed jihadis. That latter seems the most likely to me. Alternatively, Niger could negotiate an export deal to alleviate French and Western aggression, but I think that anything like this, would have to be negotiated between Niger and the owners and controllers of global financialized capital directly and not the French government. I think that The UAE and the Saudis could potentially, be instrumental in achieving something like this, but I don't know if that's gonna be pursued. I would just like to say something about, independence.

I think that we have to understand that the path to independence is a very long one. And any country, it's in Africa or anywhere else, is only going to be able to achieve that through gradual stages by moving from, one dominant power to another because this is about strength building, and it can't happen all at once. You're gonna have to move through stages of incremental decreases in foreign domination. So the Russians and the Chinese are less tyrannical than the West, and they do allow for greater economic development, and then the GCC would be potentially even less domineering and so on. As much as a country would like to be able to achieve full independence, immediately, it's just not feasible or realistic.

For the time being, severing ties with the West is an important step even while knowing that this will mean some degree of subordination under Russia and China. It's still better than being under the French or the Americans, and it is a step closer to developing the strength necessary for eventually achieving, actual full independence. So kicking out the French, kicking out the West, obviously, it doesn't mean independence. It means that now you're going to be under or subordinate to, the Russians and the Chinese, and, to one degree or another to the Emiratis and the Saudis. But as I said, that's better.

It's a it's a step forward. It's not, you didn't complete the race, but you got further down the track.