Sudan Update: Evacuations and Noncommittal Narratives

Just another quick update here on what's going on in Sudan lately. They agreed to a ceasefire over the Eid. It doesn't seem to have been, adhered to as there continues to be shooting and fighting and clashes throughout the weekend. A number of foreign countries have evacuated their embassy staff, their diplomatic staff, their consular staff, starting with Saudi Arabia, which is interesting. The United States evacuated their staff with a great deal of theatrics.

I believe France has. I believe The UK has. I believe Germany has or they are doing, and a number of other European countries have done it. It's worth noting that there's a kind of implication by these countries evacuating their staff. It's a sort of vote of no confidence against the regime, and it's a kind of assignment of blame for the conflict on both sides rather than putting the blame squarely on the RSF, which is kind of telling from a narrative point of view because obviously the RSF is to blame.

The RSF is the one who is actually revolting against the government and trying to overthrow the government. Normally, you would you would condemn the people who have initiated the aggression and the hostilities rather than saying, like, for example, there was a statement by Joe Biden, something about, all belligerents should should deescalate or all belligerents should, you know, should cease the fighting and and have a ceasefire. The government you you're calling the government a belligerent when they're just trying to maintain control over the over the state, which is certainly their right to do. You have many examples of the West condemning coup attempts in recent years. Coup attempt in Guinea Bissau was condemned.

A previous coup attempt in Sudan was condemned. A coup attempt in Gambia was condemned, you know, on and on. The normal response to an attempted coup is to condemn the people who plotted it and who tried to carry it out. But in this case, that's not really what we're seeing. We're seeing them say, all belligerents, including apparently the government, should calm down and restore order.

So it's a it's a vote of no confidence against the government and a kind of almost tacit, approval for what the RSF is doing. It's telling that they are not assigning blame where it obviously belongs and that they are pulling out their their staff showing that we don't have confidence that the government is gonna win this. We don't have confidence that the government can restore order, which sends a signal that they're not really, taking the side of the government in this issue and leaving room for the RSF to be supported and leaving room for the RSF to actually ultimately take control of the government. I would also say that this was reported in the Middle East Monitor, more or less endorses what I've been saying and how I've been explaining what's going on in Sudan from the beginning in insofar as The UAE is is actually behind this. I'm saying The UAE and Saudi Arabia, although, obviously, The UAE does have a more central, a more driving role because they have a closer relationship with the RSF and Libya.

But they work in conjunction with, Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia is a more powerful country. It's a more important country. So I believe, obviously, that Saudi Arabia was involved in this as well, and that will probably come out over time. But The UAE is certainly the the driving actor in that, and you might wanna check out this article for more information. So I would say that it's not exactly clear that this must turn into a full blown civil war, that will go on for years or months.

Pulling out the the consular staff and the way that the governments are referring to this conflict indicates that they're not opposed to the RSF taking control and they're not opposed to the government falling. It's an indication that it could still go that way, but it's ugly, and it's and and it it will get uglier before it gets better.