On the Wagner Revolt

I'm sure you're all aware of what's been going on in Russia for the last several hours with a sort of uprising by the Wagner Group in Rostov. It's too early to say really what are the objectives and the motives, the reasoning, the rationale for what, Perkojin is doing. He says that it's basically because his troops were attacked by the Russian army and that, he's accusing the Russian military officials of being sort of corrupt and weak and not giving the support that he needs in Ukraine and blah blah blah. Others are saying that it's a coup attempt, so it's it's hard to say exactly what's going on. My opinion is this is basically, perversion is Luka Bratzey to Putin's Vito Colleon, and this is what it would look like if Luka Bratzey decided that he wanted to be a head of the family.

You're a henchman, and you decided that you wanted to be a don. Okay. But this is always gonna be the danger, and this is why states have historically insisted upon holding the monopoly on violence. Because if you privatize, which is what is happening now and what this is what Russia has done, and they're not the only ones, when you privatize and divide that monopoly and allow, private sector organized violence, you erode state authority. And I think this is a trend that we're gonna be seeing more and more, in the in the future.

Private military contractors, private military companies, mercenaries, are not working for the state. They're not working for the nation. They're not working for the population. They're not committed to the, you know, the mission of the state or the the official goals of the state, the the public welfare, the the best interest of the nation and so on. They're working for money.

So this is a very dangerous thing for a state, but it to me signals the general erosion of state power and state authority that we're seeing as a result of neoliberalism. Everything is privatized. All state functions are are privatized, and that includes now also violence and military capacity in combat. It's all privatized. Private armies can now be recruited by corporations, by the rich, by, private sector power to secure and protect and enforce their interests literally through violence, like full blown neo feudalism.

And any state that, partners with these types of organizations is doing so at their own risk. We've seen it with the RSF in Sudan. You create a paramilitary group that isn't actually part of the regular army, and they're loyal to their leader. They're not loyal to you. They're not loyal to the state.

They're not loyal to the government. They're not loyal to the president. They're loyal to their leader and who signs their checks. So now you have a potential internal enemy or competitor for authority that is often more, ruthless and brutal than you are or than you're allowed to be because you are and your army is, your military is subject to certain protocols, subject to certain treaties and the law. Private military companies are not.

They can do what they want. And this is what you're seeing now with this pegocean in the Rustow in Russia. He decided that he didn't like the way the government was doing things. He didn't he said he decided that he didn't like the way the military of defense was was running things. And so he wanted it to be different, he just came in and seized the building.

You gave them this power. You are relying on them, and they're not loyal to you. They're loyal to whoever signs their checks. They're loyal to whoever is paying them. They don't have an ideology.

They're not nationalistic, which makes them the perfect military force to be relied upon by a national, non nationalistic, non ideological, private sector power. So the owners and controllers of global financialized capital are very likely to, accelerate, to increase the, usage of and the presence of private military contractors and the state armies. As we've seen all around the world generally, especially in the West, national armies are in decline in terms of their recruitment, in terms of their numbers, whereas private military companies are on the rise. Now, what's gonna happen in Russia? Aloha Adam, it's hard to say.

Obviously, Pergozin is gonna have to die. I mean, that's there's not really another way for that to go forward for him. His career and his life is most likely over. This is an act of treason. But the question is, what is gonna be the relationship now between Wagner and the Kremlin?

Because if you, arrest, prosecute, and execute Begozhin, what happens to Wagner? Are they gonna be disbanded? His members are still loyal to him, presumably. So are they now going to become a threat and a danger to Russia? This will severely, decrease Russia's combat capacity, not just in Ukraine, but around the world because they're using Wagner all over the world.

So if they can't use Wagner anymore, this this is going to be a severe blow to Russia's military power, power of, enforcing through violence, securing and protecting, and enforcing their interest globally. So what's gonna happen now? That's a question. It's an open question. But the the fate of pregozion should more or less be sealed at this point.

I don't see, you know, him putting out a a statement that he's doing it for allegedly sort of patriotic reasons and that his military campaign in or his his his his efforts in Ukraine are being undermined by the military of defense. I mean, there's never been a coup in history that wasn't undertaken for allegedly patriotic reasons. Again, I don't think it's really a coup, but either way, this is a challenge to the state power of Russia, the state power and the and the power of Putin, the authority of Putin. So, obviously, something has to be done about Pekosian. But the question is now what's gonna go for going forward, what's gonna be the relationship between, Moscow and Wagner?

Are they gonna disband Wagner? And what are you gonna do now about the usage of private military companies now that you see the danger that they pose? Well, I don't think there's anything you can do about it. I think this is irreversible, this trend of using private military companies. And what it means is that the act actually, ultimately, the fate of state power is sealed.